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| The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable | 
 enlarge | Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House
Category: Book
List Price: $27.00
Buy New: $15.97
You Save: $11.03 (41%)
Buy New/Used/Collectible from $11.65
Avg. Customer Rating:  (353 reviews)
Sales Rank: 96
Languages: English (Original Language), English (Unknown), English (Published)
Media: Hardcover
Edition: 1
Number Of Items: 1
Pages: 400
Shipping Weight (lbs): 1.5
Dimensions (in): 9.4 x 6.5 x 1.4
ISBN: 1400063515
Dewey Decimal Number: 003.54
EAN: 9781400063512
ASIN: 1400063515
Publication Date: April 17, 2007
Release Date: April 17, 2007
Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days
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| Customer Reviews:
 A delicious surprise that has changed my approach to risk November 9, 2008
1 out of 2 found this review helpful
The good news: insightful, deep, fresh and funny
The bad news: the main message could have been summed up in a few pages- but we would have missed the joy of reading his elegant prose!
 Intelligent Life November 1, 2008
1 out of 2 found this review helpful
Do you ever wonder if those people we call "intellectuals" actually exist? Have you ever stayed up late at night thinking about how everybody just seems to pull stuff out of their *ss? Maybe not. But if you have, Nassim Nicholas Taleb will give you a clear answer. These intellectual philosophy types do exist, you've just been looking in all the wrong places.
But The Black Swan is not about the existence of smart people. It is about our view of highly improbable events. Taleb discusses in depth the ineffective risk prediction models that are ingrained in our society. The scope of the book, however, is much wider than this. Taleb manages to pull in observations, studies, and biographies from our past to convey a simple and strong idea.
Imagine an assignment where you are asked to write one paragraph. The subject of your writing can include anything. You are allowed to edit the content and grammar of the paragraph once a week for ten years to make it as understandable and correct as possible. Taleb is so fluent and solid on each page you would think he used this technique throughout the book.
The Black Swan will cause you to think about everything around you from his perspective. If you are not comfortable judging people for being totally unaware of the world, do not read this book. A nice excerpt is Taleb's ranking of intelligent animals (paraphrased): Humans, Wall Street Bankers, Dolphins, Apes...and so on.
www.andironblog.com
 More Wall Street Propaganda But It Sounds Good At Cockail Parties. October 31, 2008
1 out of 7 found this review helpful
This high falutin' author has much to say, but in the end says nothing.
Just randomly turn a few pages to obtain nice little quotes that sound good during CNBC interviews. The academics can use this book to justify creating another college course to charge kids $10k to "learn about". Or you can spout this crap at cocktail parties to appear intellectual.
This book is so pompous and overly-serious that it appears to be a classic American goof. Kinda-like Orson Wells doing "War of the Worlds", Minnesota electing Jesse Ventura, or McCain bringing sexy-momma Palin into the mix.
Read it and the jokes on you.
 If you have hip boots you may learn something October 29, 2008
3 out of 5 found this review helpful
I labored over a 2 or 3 star rating but ended up at a 2 since I decided to punish hubris in the wake of the Wall Street scandals.
The book is an interesting read but you have to keep an open mind and get past the author's incredible arogance and condescention. He basically tells you that you and everyone you know are stupid because you do not think the way he thinks you should think. Some chapters have some merit and when he is not so busy telling you how dumb you are, he can make his point effectively.
One problem I had was the idea that many of his "Black Swan" events were actually unexpected. Events like 9/11 were actually predicted, not least of all from Ramszi Yousef, the man who performed the Feb 26, 1993 attack who said they would come back to finish the job. The 9/11 Commission report listed basically 10 things that pointed to the attack which if performed would have prevented it. Five were in the Clinton Administration and five in the Bush Administration (although to be fair, the Clinton Administration had a lot more time to actually learn the threat and do something about it since the first attack happened on their watch as well).
I have heard others say that the author's previous book was more helpful without the biting sarcasm and self promotion.
Open your mind October 29, 2008
0 out of 1 found this review helpful
This book is a path to open your mind to new ways of thinking. Anyone who deals with thinking should read it. Excellent book!
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